in english
wechsle die Sprache
What a really good player can do
For every successful poker player basically two skills are most critical: Math understanding and social psychology. The math part is needed to display how to select rewarding games for your specific table environment. There are a few factors to take into account:
- your opponents hand ranges (related to their betting/position/playing style)
- your starting hands relative strength (value)
- your position relatively to the dealer-button
The social psychology part becomes important to read and understand your opponent's behavior.
A profitable game is something that would generate profit when repeatedly done. These positive expectation games are so called +EV (expected value). Otherwise when a game isn't profitable the term negative expectation game or -EV is applied. After a player says that his shove with the hand AK was '+EV', he means that putting all chips to the middle was a profitable move. Therefore from his perspective he estimates a positive return of investment (winning additional chips). This is mathematically represented by an expected value number, that is higher than 0. An EV with a value of zero (0EV) indicates that wether winning nor loosing is anticipated. Otherwise, say, when the EV is equal to $-1.20 this means the call is at expense of 1 Dollar and 20 Cents. Yepp, here you're going to loose a bit of your stack, and in case of a declared All-In you won't get your cash back on a later stage (Showdown). Nevertheless this consideration affects only the following stage (normally just the Flop). It's always done in the long run (about 100 simular game situations to lower the influence of variance), and from an average point-of-view.
It's absolutely true that the outcome of a single game depends on various other factors. Intuition and drawing luck are just two good examples. Nevertheless the math is describing if your game has the tendency to generate more chips or endangers your stack. When a strong player prefers positive expectation games his advantage over gamblers is immense...
By using iRuleThem's poker advice and recognizing everything relevant, you're definitely what is called an excellent player. This means your opponent will most times simply have a worse hand than yours. Therefore he's in need of luck with the card drawing (e.g. also hit the worse kicker card, complete his Straight/Flush Draw, hit one of two remaining outs for a stronger Three of a Kind hand, etc.). Against such opponents you're mathematically in favor because you avoid getting all your money in on the worst hand.
Each opponent has developed his own strategy... His weight is either playing strong or otherwise enjoying the game. Therfore when someone raises the bet the questions remain always the same:
- How professional is/was the opponent playing his hands?
- Is he betting for value rather than just bluffing?
- Were his previous bets with hand sample at the showdown +EV or -EV?
- Is his hand likely favorite or weaker than mine?
For answering these questions it's useful to remember his hands at the showdown or have a good read. Furthermore the opponent's game history (his success) is also part of the big picture. It's always a good idea to describe your opponents most recent emotions and state of mind. When anyone decides to play more hands it's very important to find out his reasons:
- Has he recently won or lost his chips?
- Is he stressed or even on tilt?
- How confident is he with playing this particular hand?
- Is he on a run and his hands are more powerful than expected (momentum)?
Many players with monster hands aren't able to play them the same way as they normally would do (reflected by their wagering). Therefore be cautious when someone acts unfamiliar. Moves like the first check-raise from someone who plays strictly for value should be very alerting...
Yes, Poker is a game of information! It's based on reading your involved opponents strength and comparing your model with the occurred reality. A pros target is to classify every opponent between loose or tight and aggressive or passive.
How someone is acting is always reflected by the amount of played/raised hands in respect of his overall received hand count.
The play rate or play frequency is the term of this division. That knowledge makes a pro able to say: 'That's a high pair player' or 'That one plays hands that are stronger than JT'.
It's all about defining an opponent's impact or in other words his starting hand range. An advanced player also needs to know the occurrence rates of specific starting hand ranges. Therefore a seasoned player is able to adapt his playing frequency to become stronger.
By counting how often everyone is in action a pro improves his perception game by game. Another thing to recognize is the needed bet-size that leads in most cases to a fold reaction of the considered opponent. A pro can play good hands... or he could just play-off his weak opponents (fold equity).
He's aware of his chances and risks because his brain is fully filled with stats (or experiences) for every starting hand of interest!
He knows that ...
'A2 from the first position in Heads Up (SB) is a very strong and promising catch.'
Beyond that he's aware that ...
'the same hand A2 on a 10-player table (UTG) would be not much of use and highly dangerous to play. Actually he also knows of the small overall improvement in case both cards have the same suit. Nevertheless the Chance of holding the nuts after a later received Flush-Draw is not to neglect. From late position or against a loose opponent this hand could be worth with the requirement that nobody has opened the game by betting.
For most of the poker player out there it's the experience that makes them a long-term winner. That knowhow how to decide when the dealt cards are good in play is very success relevant. If the decision is a 'Yes' - then this starting hand has to be played in the right way. That's done by raising or just calling. Raising is for protecting the hand by eliminating opponents. (E.g. On a 10-player table the hand 22 from middle position should get protected but not overpaid. The target is to just run against 1 opponent and to check in advance if any higher pocket pair has been handed out.)
Calling is just good enough when there already are some reasonable doubts about your perspective.
Another skill needed to be a good player is the ability to fold a good hand.
Running against the nuts (the best makeable hand) or just a better 5-card poker hand is most times worth a lay down. Therefore the opponent's bet-size and their tendency to bluff and hide their monster hands have also to be included.
A pro understands if a specific Flop/Turn or River (community cards) has strengthened his hand. Playing Poker and having already experienced everything important during multiple games is the base for making good decisions. It's all about choosing the situations that will lead more often to winning. In order to achieve that the occurrence probability of all 5-card poker hands created with the given board cards have to be known. He has to recognize all draws and made hands he might possibly run against. After making the top pair he has to prevent others from making their monsters with, say, a nice pot-sized bet.
For his hole cards (the dealt starting hand) a pro knows when a board in relation to the bet is promising (pot odds). Some players use out counting with the 4/2 rule (where 4 as multiplier is only applied for an all-in Post-Flop situation and 2 in every other case). Others only remind themselves on board texture (straight, paired, suited, rainbow, ...) of comparable past situations. He's aware that the randomly drawn community cards might kill his already made hand. Therefore if possible he's protecting it against draws or lucky cards.
Last but not least a good player knows about the influence of the dealer button position. Having the button means being able to overview the situation before betting. That's a big advantage. It's often used for position bluffing. He also recognizes that someone who is staying in the Big Blind position is much more likely to have worse cards than someone playing from first position (under the gun UTG / located after the blinds).
Therefore an experienced player knows when his hand is likely favorite in a scenario. Texas Hold'em Poker is a game of experience, good reading and probabilities. It's all about understanding what a specific bet might mean to answer it with the correct decision!
